After Barry Bonds finally hit homer number 756, I thought that comparing his late career numbers to other, legitimately great home run hitters, might shed a harsh light on the situation that even apologists in the Bay Area might concede the reality. On the Costas show on HBO in the summer of 2007, one of the Balco guys said Bonds started using steroids in 1998 when he was 34 or 35. Most players start to decline by the mid-thirties, but not Bonds. His statistics increased as gaudily as his cap size.
I crunched some numbers and created the chart shown below. Shown are Bonds numbers and those of the other 500 home run hitters (not including current players, plus other known 'roiders such as McGuire, Sosa and Palmeiro) including and after the season they turned 35, and the differences between those numbers of that of their younger days.
As expected, nearly all of these players put up significantly better numbers while younger than 35. Bonds is the big exception. He seemed to have found the fountain of youth; actually, something more proficient than the fountain of youth. His home run percentage incredibly increased by nearly 5% between the average of his 35-and-up years versus his youth to almost 11%, the highest in baseball history. Only Aaron and Williams improved late in their career in this regard, but only be a single percentage point. Bonds’ batting average shot up 26 points while everyone else dropped over 30 points on average. Bonds’ slugging percentage increased a staggering 156 points while the fifteen other sluggers dropped 90 points on average. There is amazing nearly 250 point difference between Bonds and the average of this esteemed group. Bonds’ on-base percentage increase over 90 points while the average decreased about 30 points. Not surprisingly, his overall statistics late in his career are far better than any other ballplayer, especially his power numbers.
Is there any doubt?